Israel Update for February 2006

David Dolan

The aftershocks from the stunning Hamas landslide victory in January's Palestinian elections continued to rattle the region during February. Israeli leaders found themselves on the horns of a profound dilemma: How to quarantine the virulent repercussions from the Islamic extremist electoral triumph while keeping the situation on the ground from becoming even more explosive. The same delicate issue was being dealt with by international sponsors of the derailed Road Map peace process, while Muslim countries like Iran and Syria worked on their own responses to the unexpected Hamas electoral rout.

While puzzled politicians pondered their next moves, a Palestinian terrorist stabbed an Israeli woman to death and wounded five other passengers on a commuter bus near Tel Aviv in early February. Further south, Kassam rockets continued to fly from inside the Israeli-evacuated Gaza Strip, nearly striking a strategic target near Ashkelon on one occasion that could have interrupted electricity supplies to half of Israel. Another rocket struck a home on a kibbutz in the western Negev, seriously injuring a toddler when shrapnel struck her head. This came as Israeli officials revealed that a potentially deadly mortar attack on southern Jerusalem had been narrowly averted.

North of the capital, the most extensive army operation since the Gaza evacuation last August was launched mid-month in an attempt to root out budding terrorist cells in the town of Nablus. Palestinian leaders said the military campaign, buttressed by Israeli air strikes on rocket-launching targets in the Gaza Strip, could endanger the terrorist "timeout" declared by Hamas and other Palestinian groups in early 2005.

Further north, tensions continued to boil along the border with Lebanon as that divided country marked the one year anniversary of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's assassination, believed ordered by the Baathist regime in neighboring Syria. This came as Syria admitted it has been funneling weapons to the Hizbullah militia in violation of an agreement made with the United Nations in 2000. Additional verbal volleys were lobbed at Israel from Tehran during the month as Iran's nuclear program faced possible sanctions at the United Nations.

THREE CONDITIONS

Soon after the militant Islamic Resistance Movement-more widely known by its Arabic acronym, Hamas-captured 74 seats in the 132 seat Palestinian legislature, Israeli government leaders announced that they would have absolutely no formal dealings with any Hamas-led Palestinian government unless the radical group did three essential things: 1) Renounce all violence and disarm illegal "Izzaddin al-Qassem" militia units. 2) Alter the Hamas Charter call for Israel's total destruction, replacing it with a pledge to recognize Israel's permanent right to exist. 3) Pledge to fully honor all previous signed agreements between Israeli and Palestinian officials, especially the seminal Oslo peace accords. The three Israeli conditions were subsequently endorsed by the four powers that comprise the Road Map quartet: the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations.

Middle East analysts said that Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his cabinet subordinates understand there is virtually no chance that jubilant Hamas leaders will adhere to even one of these necessary conditions, let alone all three of them. Still, Israel had to make clear to Road Map sponsors that it is not firmly slamming the door on all potential future contact with a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority government, but only with a cabinet controlled by a group still formally espousing and actively working for Israel's ultimate annihilation.

Ecstatic over their sudden rise to political power, Hamas leaders wasted no time in reiterating their core rejectionist positions regarding the hated "Zionist entity" that they wish to see totally obliterated. "Recognizing the State of the Israeli enemy is not on the table," said Gaza-based Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Zahar in mid-February. Underlining this point, he added that, "Our program is to liberate Palestine, all of Palestine." He went on to reveal plans to strengthen the illegal Hamas militia and warned that the reach of the group's Kassem rockets "is being improved all the time."

The Gaza-based Hamas official also commented on statements made by several other Hamas leaders indicating that a longterm ceasefire-known in Arabic as hudna, or a temporary timeout until Islam's percieved enemies can be handily defeated-was possible with Israel. "Anyone who thinks any period of calm means giving in is mistaken. The calm is in preparation for a new round of resistance and victory," he stated forcifully, adding ominously that Hamas members had "entered the political arena to eliminate any traces of the Olso Accords."

THE IRANIAN CONNECTION

Al-Zahar's hardline sentiments were echoed by overall Hamas leader Khaled Mashal during a post election visit with Iranian clerical and political leaders in Tehran. Even though the Iranian regime is dominated by radical Shiite Muslims, and the Palestinians are mainly Sunnis, Iranian leaders promised to back Hamas to the hilt, including financially if necessary. This came as extremist President Mahmoud Ahmadinajab continued to publicly call for Israel's destruction.

Recognizing that the militant Hamas group is apparrently here to stay, Jordanian officials later announced that Mashal would be permitted to return his base of operations from Damascus to Amman, from where he was exiled after sanctioning terror attacks inside of Jordan. This promted Israeli Army General Yair Naveh, who commands the central region which includes all of Judea and Samaria, to reveal that Jordanian-based Al Qaida terrorist cells are already actively assisting several West Bank Palestinian groups. Meanwhile Israel's leading newspaper quoted senior defense officials as warning that Al Qaida operatives are planning a "mega-attack" against Israel, with the intention of carrying it out sometime before the end of 2006.

General Naveh rattled some cages when he added that Jordanian King Abdullah is in danger of being toppled by Islamic extremists bent on establishing a chain of radical states stretching from Iran, Iraq and Jordan, and ending with Hamas-run territory at the very gates of Jerusalem. When King Abdullah protested over the possibly precient warning, Naveh issued a formal apology, echoed later by Acting PM Ehud Olmert in a phone call to the Hashemite monarch.

Media reports quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergie Lavrov as telling top officials of the five permanent UN Security Council members that Iran is "already in the preliminary stage of producing a large nuclear device." He added that his country had solid information that the radical state is ready to test the weapon. The five world powers, including China and Russia, later agreed to formally present the Iranian nuclear issue before the UN-a move that the US and Israel have been advocating for some time. This was followed two weeks later by a statement from the French Defense Minister that Iran's nuclear program "has military goals," and is "not designed for energy purposes" as Iranian leaders claim.