Israel Update for February 2006

IS IT GOOD FOR THE JEWS?

Not a few Israeli analysts and politicians opined that, despite the obvious headaches and threats posed by the Hamas triumph, it was probably for the best that the militant Muslim group won such a clear cut landslide victory in the January election. They noted that the long dominant PLO Fatah movement has been openly conducting terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians since late 2000 via its illegal "Al Aksa Martyr's Brigades," sometimes supported by Fatah-controlled PA security forces. All the while, Fatah leaders maintained their verbal commitment to the moribund peace process with its highly touted, if practicably questionable "two state solution." With Hamas now seated in the saddle, it should be clearer to the international community, and to utopian left-wing Israelis and their foreign supporters, that Israel has no viable partner with which to negotiate further peace moves.

To help the world realize that Israel is serious about having no dealings with a Hamas-led PA government, the cabinet voted on February 19th to freeze all tax and customs revenue transfers to the Palestinians. Government ministers enacted other punitive measures as well, including halting all Palestinian travel between the Gaza Strip and West Bank and blocking the construction of planned Palestinian air and sea ports.

Acting PM Olmert told his cabinet that, "Israel sees the rise of Hamas as a dangerous reference point that transforms the Palestinian Authority into a terrorist authority. The new situation will influence future relations between Israel and the PA, and we will begin a process of scaling back ties unless Hamas fully accepts the principles presented to it by the international community."

Although they had earlier endorsed Olmert's conditions for dealing with Hamas, several Road Map sponsors labelled the Israeli government moves as premature. They contended that Israeli officials had promised to take no action until the new Hamas-led government was actually formed, which is not expected before at least the middle of March. If Hamas succeeds in forming a viable government, the US and EU say they will join Israel in halting all direct financial aid to the PA, but continue to channel substantial "humanitarian support" to the Palestinian people through various non-governmental organizations like the UN and World Vision. Some Israelis say this would amount to indireclty funding terrorism.

The Israeli sanctions came just one day after overall PA leader Mahmoud Abbas announced that he would ask Hamas to form a new government. He urged such a government to adhere to the Oslo accords, recognize Israel's permanent existence and foreswear violence. Hamas leaders rejected those conditions once again while revealing that the relatively moderate Gaza-based Hamas politician Ismail Haniya would become the new PA prime minister (that position did not even exist under the original PA structure, but was later urged upon a reluctant Yasser Arafat by Western nations hoping to diffuse the veteran PLO leader's overarching dictatorial powers).

Haniya later told the Washington Post that Hamas might "make peace with Israel in stages" if it first completely evacuated all territory captured in 1967, including Jerusalem's walled Old City. Israeli officials rejected the statement as "clever verbal gymnastics" urged upon Haniya by a Palestinian public relations firm the group recently hired to clean up its international image. One day later, Haniya denied that he had offered any peace deal in the interview, clarifying that he was merely speaking of possibly enacting "a political hudna," or a temporary ceasefire.

KNESSET ELECTIONS

As Israel's own national election campaign entered its final month, sparring intensified over the thorny issue of how best to deal with the haunting Hamas reality. Ads picturing a stern-looking Binyamin Netanyahu popped up on public transport buses around the country proclaiming that the Likud leader would "stand firm" against Hamas. This followed charges from senior Likud politicians that Kadima party leader Ehud Olmert had displayed "reckless tolerance" for the radical group by allowing it to participate in Palestinian elections inside of Jerusalem's municipal boundaries.

Right-wing politicians also heaped heavy rebukes on Olmert's handling of the February 1st dismantling of the small settlement outpost of Amona. Dozens of security personnel and settlers were injured, several seriously, in fierce clashes that accompanied the razing of nine Jewish homes north of the capital. Critics charged that unlike during the relatively peaceful Gaza evacuations last August, the government had ordered soldiers and police to use brute force against the protestors.

Olmert angrily rejected the contentions, and later confirmed reports that he intends to carry out further unilateral settlement evacuations meant "to separate Israel from most of the Palestinian population, and establish Israel's permanent borders." Netanyahu denounced this as "irresponsible" in light of the recent Hamas triumph, noting that current Shin Bet security head Yuval Diskin has warned that further unilateral withdrawals will seriously endanger Israel's security. More significantly, Olmert's intentions were also opposed by several senior Kadima politicians, including former Shin Bet director Avi Dichter.

Netanyahu reiterated earlier statements that the unilateral Sharon government pullouts from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria had significantly strengthened the radical Palestinian group, giving it credible grounds to boast that its manifold terrorist strikes had forced Israel to flee. He said the government decision to evacuate the disputed territory without formally negotiating terms of the withdrawals with the Fatah-run PA left unnecessary egg of the face of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, and therefore weakened his ability to thwart Hamas participation in the Palestinian legislative elections. Netanyahu's critique-said to be shared by many senior army and intelligence officials-was also echoed by several Labour politicians even though the left-wing party supported the forced evacuations.

KADIMA MARCHES ON!

Opinion polls taken after the Kadima-led interim cabinet voted to freeze monthly revenue transfers to the PA showed the action was strongly supported by most voters. Analysts said this helped explain why Kadima is projected to win a substantial electoral victory on March 28th, even though the party has lost some of the initial surge of support garnered in the wake of Ariel Sharon's debilitating January 4th stroke.