Israel Update for February 2006

Several opinion polls published the last weekend of February showed Olmert's party capturing between 38 to 39 seats-a drop from its post Sharon stroke surge to 42-44 seats, but still nearly one-third of the 120 Knesset seats up for grabs. The Likud gained two to three seats in most surveys taken soon after the Hamas landslide victory was certified, and is now expected to win 16 to 17 mandates. Analysts said Netanyahu will probably capture even more seats if Palestinian terrorists step up their pre-election assaults, as security officials anticipate.

Populist Labour party leader Amir Peretz-heavily disparaged by some party comrades for focusing too much attention on economic issues instead of on mushrooming national security concerns-saw his party's projected fortunes decline still further in February. Garnering around 20 Knesset seats in earlier polls to the Likud's 15, Labour is now hovering just ahead of the Likud, with 18 or 19 seats.

The Sephardic religious Shas party held steady in most polls at around ten seats. Meanwhile the projected fortunes of the once powerful National Religious Party rose after it formally merged with the far right-wing National Union, with the new party expected to also receive at least nine seats. The Russian immigrant Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our Home) party is also projected to capture some eight or nine seats. The Orthodox Torah Judaism party will win its usual five to six seats, all polls revealed, as will the ultra-left wing Meretz party. The Knesset's three Arab political parties, who announced in February that they would run together on a united ticket, are projected to end up with at least eight seats.

Israeli political analysts said that if all of these numbers hold, and the Likud captures at least 20 seats, the right-wing and religious parties would together hold some 55 seats in the next Knesset-a sizable opposition to the expected Kadima-led coalition government. But they add that Olmert will probably bring at least one religious party into his centrist coalition, relying on his vast experience putting together secular-Orthodox alliances while serving as Jerusalem's mayor.

Analysts say Olmert will probably persuade Yisrael Beiteinu's popular Russian-born leader Avigdor Lieberman-once a close aid to Netanyahu-to bring his party on board the coalition train. If he succeeds in knitting together a government that includes Shas, United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beiteinu, as many predict, Olmert would not need to include either Labour or Likud in his cabinet-leaving them both out of the ruling elite for the first time in Israel's modern history. Still, many anticipate that a humbled Labour party will end up joining the new government, especially if current party leader Amir Peretz resigns after yet another poor Labour electoral showing.

Various polls continue to show that a majority of Israelis are not happy with any of the three contenders vying to inherit the stricken Ariel Sharon's cabinet seat. Nearly 50% of voters questioned in a Smith Institute survey said Ehud Olmert was "not suitable" to carry on serving as prime minister, with a minority of 46% opining that he is an acceptable leader. Still, only 36% believe Netanyahu is qualified to return to the job he held in the late 1990s. Faring even worse was Amir Peretz, deemed by just one in five voters as suitable to lead the world's only Jewish state.

More than ever before, Israel needs her prophesied Messiah to come and rule as King of Kings in Jerusalem! May He swiftly return in our time and vanquish His enemies! "The sons of those who afflicted you will come bowing to you, and all those who despised you will bow themselves at the soles of your feet. And they will call you the city of the Lord, the Zion of the Holy One of Israel." (Isaiah 60:14)