Israel Update for July 2006

Merely A Question Of When

That Israeli leaders could not forever allow a burgeoning, jihad-crazed militia to openly operate right along their northern border was a given, especially since the rogue force is largely controlled by a radical Shiite regime in Tehran vowing to completely wipe Israel off of the regional map. As this reporter has made clear in public meetings around the world over the past several years, the only question was when the government would act.

As I noted in my talks, Israeli security sources had informed me that the original plan was to deal with the growing Hizbullah threat while US and UK forces were spearheading a multi-national attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power in nearby Iraq. I was told that then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had received White House approval for the planned operation. However, both American and Israeli officials underestimated the depth of support that the Iraqi dictator enjoyed on the Palestinian street, and thus the intensely angry response they would display against the American-led invasion. It was decided in both Washington and Jerusalem that the time was not ripe for a push against Hizbullah, lest Israel find itself fighting a two-front war in Lebanon and in the Palestinian zones (as it has ended up doing anyway in the current conflict!).

There were two core reasons that Sharon wanted to take on the Shiite militia in March 2003. The first was quite practical. The Israeli public was then fully prepared for possible Iraqi Scud strikes against civilian centers, meaning they were also prepared for the anticipated Hizbullah rocket blitz that we are currently enduring. Bomb shelters had been unlocked and cleaned out, gas masks refreshed and distributed, emergency services placed on full alert, Patriot missile batteries with their early warning radar systems set up near major population centers, etc. The second reason was that it was determined that both Syria and Iran would be preoccupied with the situation in Iraq, which is located smack dab between them, and therefore slow to come to Hizbullah's aid, if at all. Still, in the event, both Sharon and George W. Bush agreed it was not the ideal time to add more fuel to the burgeoning Mideast fire.

I was told that the second timeframe for a pre-planned, well laid out operation to denude the increasingly potent Hizbullah militia was early 2005. Ariel Sharon would simply wait for the next Hizbullah provocation (the jihadist fighters had long before proved that they simply could not stand to go very long without launching some unprovoked assault) to let lose his world renowned IDF forces, especially his excellent Air Force. However, the veteran right-wing politician had failed to anticipate the depth of passionate internal division that his unilateral Gaza withdrawal plan-unveiled in early 2004-would generate in his own country. With talk of possible civil war reverberating throughout the small Jewish state, the decorated former general decided it was not the optimum time to launch a major operation that could easily escalate into a full war with Syria.

The third window of opportunity was determined to be soon after Israeli national elections this year. As the current conflict demonstrates, that plan has indeed been put into effect. This certainly does not mean that Israeli officials somehow invited Hizbullah agents to infiltrate across the border to capture and slaughter IDF soldiers on July 12th, but only that they were ready with a major "clean-out plan" when the next inevitable unprovoked Hizbullah attack took place, as it did on that day. In fact, my sources say IDF generals were fully ready to take on the threatening militia when it opened fire on Israeli positions as PM Olmert was preparing to meet with President Bush at the White House in May, but the Premier decided to desist at that time so as not to embarrass his sympathetic host.

Syria And Iran

The prospects that Syria and or/Iran might become directly involved in the raging Israel-Hizbullah conflict seemed to grow as the fighting continued into a third week. This was especially the case after Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora called for regional Muslim powers to "stand united with Lebanon in the face of the Israeli war criminals." His virtual war cry came in the wake of the July 30th civilian deaths in Qana, which sparked rage throughout Lebanon and the entire Muslim world. The fuming Lebanese Sunni Muslim leader charged that Israel had "deliberately massacred our innocent martyrs" before hailing Sheik Nasrallah as a great Lebanese patriot.

Israeli government and army officials countered again that the IDF had no idea civilians were huddled in the building, which they repeated was being used by nearby Hizbullah rocket launchers as cover against return Israeli fire. They noted that the disaster in Qana came just two days after Hizbullah lobbed five longer-range rockets at Israeli civilian centers for the first time, striking the Jezreel Valley town of Afula nearly 40 miles south of Lebanon. Experts said the warheads were five times more explosive than the Katyushas fired up until then. That the rockets all landed right next to occupied apartment buildings and in nearby fields, and therefore did not kill anyone, was nothing short of miraculous, they added. The Shiite group labeled the Syrian-built rockets as the "Kybar-1" which refers to an early Islamic battle against the Jews of Arabia that was personally authorized by Muhammad. Hizbullah leaders stated again that even more potent rockets that can strike Tel Aviv remain in their deadly arsenal.

Israeli analysts had been warning well before the civilian slayings in Qana that Hassan Nasrallah was attempting to draw Syria directly into the conflict. With many leaders around the world criticizing him for launching his unprovoked cross border raid more than six years after IDF forces left south Lebanon, the Shiite Sheik was said to be hoping that his Syrian Alawite patrons would open up a second war front on the Golan Heights, which the world unanimously considers occupied Syrian territory. Street pressure on regional Muslim leaders to "do something" to thwart the Israeli campaign in Lebanon seemed to grow precipitously both inside Syria and around the Middle East in the wake of the Qana tragedy. Possibly indicating that he is considering direct intervention, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad strongly condemned the Israeli action as "state terrorism." Israeli security analysts said that the mullahs who run Iran have been putting pressure on their Syrian ally to jump into the fray.

With most residents of Israel now under threat of Hizbullah rocket attack, and with most Lebanese leaders now at least publicly backing the radical Shiite cleric who has kidnapped their country, it does appear that an even more intense Mideast war may be on the horizon. It is good to recall the many promises of ultimate victory over evil that the God of Israel long ago issued to His Chosen People, which caused King David to proclaim his full confidence in His powerful heavenly Father: "The Lord is my light and my salvation; whom shall I fear? The Lord is the defense of my life; whom shall I dread? When evildoers came upon me to devour my flesh, my adversaries and my enemies, they stumbled and fell. Though a host encamp against, me, my heart will not fear. Though war arise against me, in spite of this I shall be confident." (Psalm 27, 1-3).