Israel Update for August 2012

The army also tested out a new system to alert citizens of a pending missile attack, military operation or other threats affecting public order. The system simultaneously sends out thousands of SMS messages to Israeli cell phones informing area residents of a pending attack or other similar items. Analysts say the system gives the government a new ability to quietly, yet quickly inform the public of an imminent attack without utilizing the media - heavily monitored by Israel's enemies. Issuing public alerts via the media would in effect give away the element of surprise if IDF forces were sent into action against Iran's nuclear targets. However not warning the public of pending action is morally questionable and would undoubtedly lead to increased Israeli casualties when the rockets and missiles do fly.

The Israeli Ha'aretz newspaper said in mid August that President Obama had received a revised intelligence report that contained "startling fresh information" that Iran had made "unexpected strides" in its nuclear programme, with some experts saying it might be able to produce several nuclear warheads before the end of this year. The newspaper said the report contained "new and alarming information" about Iran's nuclear production programme. The White House said it would "not comment on intelligence reports the President may or may not have received."

Meanwhile American Defense Secretary Leon Panetta came to Israel in early August and met with senior government officials, including Defense Minister Ehud Barak. He later told reporters that Iran's militant leaders "have a choice to make. They can either negotiate in a way that tries to resolve these issues and has them abiding by international rules and requirements and giving up their effort to develop their nuclear capability. But if they don't, and if they continue to make the decision to proceed with a nuclear weapon, we have options that we are prepared to implement to ensure that does not happen."

Thirty Day War

The wisdom of Israeli leaders ordering a military strike on Iran was widely debated here during the month, sometimes openly and sometimes via anonymous quotes from senior officials. It became clear that a significant debate is taking place among senior cabinet ministers about the possible outcomes of an IDF operation, both militarily and diplomatically. Whether speaking on the record or not, almost all Israeli political and military leaders agree that if a military attack is deemed essential to halt Iran's burgeoning nuclear production programme, it would be best if it were led by the United States and its NATO allies, with Israel merely playing a supporting role.

However in light of the American presidential and congressional elections scheduled to be held in early November, very few expect that President Obama would initiate such action even if Iran's uranium enrichment centrifuges end up completely buried deep underground (which is seemingly already essentially the case). Still, if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launches a military operation, many security analysts say they anticipate it most likely would not take place before the Jewish autumn holidays end after the first week of October. The country is always brimming with foreign tourists during the holidays, both Jews who come to see family and friends and Christians who come for the annual Feast of Tabernacles celebrations. Of course, Israel's enemies can initiate action at any time as well, as Hizbullah essentially did in 2006.

Among those who went on record against an IDF operation during August was former Armed Forces Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, who argued it would bring much damage in its wake and only set back the Iranian nuclear programme for a short season. However senior aids to the Prime Minister noted that Ashkanazi has been engaged in a long-standing feud with Defense Minister Barak, which may at least partially explain his public opposition to any potential IDF action against Iran.

Just before stepping down from his cabinet position, Israel's outgoing Home Front Command Minister, Matan Vilnai, gave an interview to the Ma'ariv newspaper concerning the prospects of war with Iran and its allies. Detailing some of the work his ministry has done to prepare for a possible conflict, he said the Israeli government and military are "fully prepared for a multi-front war" that is likely to erupt following any Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. He said such a "blow-back" war would probably feature multiple missile attacks upon Israeli targets, as has been stated before by Barak and other Israeli leaders. Vilnai said the Israeli military can keep up sustained operations for as long as 30 days if necessary, saying any new war may last that long (similar to the length of the 2006 war with Hizbullah forces in Lebanon). He added it would sadly feature rocket and missile attacks upon Israeli population centres and military targets every day.

The former government minister, who has been appointed Israel's new ambassador to China, revealed that officials estimate up to 500 Israelis might perish in the projected conflict with Iran and its regional allies. Many thousands would be wounded, some critically. However several Israeli security analysts said such relatively low casualty figures are probably on the optimistic side, with one noting that tens of thousands of people could easily be killed, especially if chemical or other non-conventional weapons are aimed at Israel's urban centres.

Adding to concerns that a pending war could be quite fierce, Lebanese newspapers reported that the Iranian-funded and trained Hizbullah militia held a major military drill in southern Lebanon during August. Over 10,000 armed Hizbullah fighters were said to have participated in the war drill, which would make it the largest in the militia's 30 year history. The Lebanese press reports claimed that the drill was testing the militia's ability to pour across the nearby Israeli border and cut off and then occupy the Upper Galilee region, which is home to tens of thousands of Israelis. The military drill came just days after Hizbullah's overall leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, pledged in a speech that his heavily-armed militia force would join any Iranian military action in response to an IDF strike upon Iran's nuclear facilities. Many Israeli Middle East analysts say in light of the fact that Hizbullah's closest regional backer, Bashar Assad, is apparently losing his struggle to cling to power, and given the likelihood that some military action is pending against Iran, another round of Hizbullah rocket attacks upon Israel is probably inevitable.

In another sign of a possibly pending conflict with Iran and its regional allies, underground parking garages in Tel Aviv are being prepared to act as bomb shelters for those city residents who do not have one in their homes or workplaces. Municipal officials announced in mid August that 60 garages have been approved for use as bomb shelters for some 800,000 people in the case of a missile attack on Israel's largest urban centre. The municipality said it devised this solution out of concern for residents stuck without access to a shelter or a reinforced "security room" inside or near their places of residence. The municipality's website uploaded a map of the city detailing the locations of the garages - which some experts said was a bad move that may give Israel's enemies new targets to attack in time of war.

Fighting Escalates In Syria

Syria's two largest cities, Aleppo and Damascus, became totally engulfed in armed conflict during August as more military and political leaders defected to the Sunni Muslim-led revolt aimed at toppling the detested Assad family regime that has governed Syria since the 1960s. Syrian air force warplanes joined government tanks and attack helicopters as battles were fought in many portions of Damascus, still mostly under regime control. In Aleppo, rebel forces claimed to be holding many parts of the city and surrounding areas. The intensifying conflict caused the United Nations to pull its monitors out of Syria during August, saying they were no longer able to have any effect as the fighting blazed into full-scale civil war.

The United Nations confirmed Israeli and international media reports that Iran has been providing crucial and substantial aid to the besieged Assad regime in its 17-month struggle to stay in power. The UN said the Shiite Republic is providing funds, weapons munitions and intelligence support to Assad and his cronies. Iranian Revolutionary Guards are operating on the ground, establishing local militias to help back the strained Syrian military, which has been greatly weakened by many defections over the past year. The UN report states that over 18,000 people have perished so far in the conflict, many of them non-combatant civilians, with countless numbers wounded. It added that around 170,000 Syrians have fled the fighting, seeking refuge in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and other regional countries. Human rights groups say some 2.5 million Syrian civilians are in dire need of food and medical aid. Opposition groups claim that over 23,000 Syrians have been killed so far in the fierce conflict, three-fourths of them non-combatants.