Israel Update for March 2006

The Olmert interviews and subsequent falls in projected support for his Kadima party helped to produce the largest pre-election pool of self-declared undecided voters in Israel's modern history. Various opinion surveys found that nearly one-fifth of all voters-worth some 20 Knesset seats-were not sure which political party they would choose just one week before the election. Analysts said this reflected the fact that they were basically unhappy with all three of the candidates for prime minister, unlike the solid support that Ariel Sharon elicited from nearly half of the electorate. "Many lean towards Kadima's platform, but don't trust Olmert to carry it out" was how one analyst summarized the situation on Israel Radio.

But the polls changed dramatically after Israeli security forces-at Olmert's command-raided a Palestinian jail in Jericho in order to capture several wanted Palestinian men. The suspects including Ahmad Sadat, the leader of the outlawed Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine group which took responsibility for the October 2001 murder of Tourism Minister Rehavam Zeevi outside of his room at the Jerusalem Hyatt Hotel. The successful raid included the capture of wanted financer Fuad Shubaki, accused of bankrolling an Iranian ship carrying illegal weapons to the Palestinian Authority that was intercepted by Israeli naval forces in 2002. The Jericho raid led to a rash of kidnappings of foreigners working with various aid organizations in the PA zones of control, accompanied by widespread violence.

Rebuking the Israeli action as "an unforgivable crime," Palestinian leader Abbas cancelled speaking plans in Europe and rushed back to the troubled region. However he later admitted that British and American officials had warned him they were preparing to withdraw their security personnel, who had earlier been assigned the task of monitoring the jail to make sure the PA did not release the alleged criminals. The two Anglo countries had earlier informed Abbas that since he could no longer ensure the safety of the monitors in light of the imminent Hamas PA takeover, there was no choice but to withdraw them from the PA prison facility.

Many Palestinians maintained that George Bush and Tony Blair had colluded to produce a false crisis in order to give Olmert an opportunity to act tough on the eve of the Israeli Knesset elections-a charge echoed by several Israeli politicians as well. Whatever the truth, Israeli opinion polls showed that the popular military action did indeed immediately boost Kadima's ratings, with floating Russian immigrant voters in particular being apparently drawn to the new centrist party.

Still, just days before the ballot, the polls again reflected widespread Israeli ambivalence about Olmert and his party, with Kadima again sinking to around 35 projected seats in the next Knesset. Meanwhile the number of undecided voters was still quite high in comparison to earlier elections, meaning that many usual voters might simply decide to stay home, which analysts said could produce a surprise outcome on election day.

Kadima leaders also expressed concern that surveys showing them capturing nearly one-third of all Knesset seats might produce complacency among many of their intended voters, leaving both the Labour and Likud parties with a larger slice of the pie when all the votes were counted. Others noted that opinion polls often underrate right-wing strength since many such voters are either religiously observant or Russian immigrants who are either hard to reach or reluctant to reveal their true opinions to anonymous phone survey takers.

Olmert's Headaches

Political analysts had been anticipating that the Russian immigrant Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our Home) party-projected to win around ten Knesset seats-would easily join Olmert's expected centrist coalition when all of the election dust settles sometime during April. But these predictions were seemingly dashed when party leader Avigdor Lieberman launched a fierce verbal attack upon Kadima's unilateral withdrawal intentions just one week before the national ballot. In a March 20th Haaretz interview, he said his party would "not join any government that includes Olmert's withdrawal plan in its founding guidelines," adding that the mere publication of the unilateral plan had "already strengthened Hamas and extremist Arab-Israeli Muslims."

Analysts said it might be quite difficult for Olmert to form a viable coalition government without the immigrant party, given that no other right wing secular or religious party is likely to support him unless he dumps his evacuation plan, including the Likud and Shas. Polls predicted that left-wing Jewish parties alone will not win enough mandates to put Olmert over the magic 61 seats needed to form a stable government. His main hope would then be that the Orthodox United Torah Judaism party-expected to win its usual 5 to 6 seats-jumps on his coalition bandwagon with Labour and the ultra-left Meretz party. But many experts predicted the Ashkenazi religious party will be loath to do so, despite expected significant financial rewards, especially if it turned out to be the only right wing or religious party in an otherwise left-leaning government coalition that is openly preparing to uproot tens of thousands of mainly religious Jews from their cherished homes inside of Israel's hallowed biblical heartland.

Analysts said Olmert's only other realistic option would be to include one or more of the three Arab parties expected to win around ten seats in the Israeli legislature. But they add that this unprecedented action would be fiercely resisted by many of his Kadima colleagues, especially those who followed him and Sharon out of the Likud. If Lieberman sticks to his guns and Olmert keeps to his March 22nd pledge to cling to his highly controversial evacuation plans whether the Russian-born politician likes them or not, some analysts said the Kadima leader's time in office might be very short lived indeed.

Hamas Cabinet Unveiled

Despite warnings from the United States and European Union that direct donor funds would be cut off if Hamas took over the Palestinian Authority, the radical Muslim movement unveiled its new Hamas-dominated Palestinian Authority government on March 19th. As expected, the prime minister designate was the relatively moderate Ismail Haniyeh. However the second highest cabinet portfolio, Foreign Minister, was assigned to one of the movement's most extreme members, Mahmoud al-Zahar. He was quoted extensively in last month's news review saying that Hamas would never alter its charter call for Israel's untimate anihilation, nor halt its violent terrorist acts to "liberate all of Palestine."

The proposed PA cabinet is entirely made up of Hamas members or their loyal sympathizers, including one token woman and one nominal Christian. The extremist cabinet was put together after the Sunni Muslim group failed to persuade Fatah and other more centrist Palestinian political parties to join a Hamas-led coalition. Analysts said the cabinet makeup virtually guarantees that the moribund Road Map "land for peace" process will end up six feet under the ground.

Israeli officials warned that the cabinet makeup would further isolate the Palestinians from the international community. Calling the new PA government a "terrorist" outfit that "does not hide its intentions" to pursue the officially declared Hamas agenda to destroy Israel and replace it with an Islamic fundamentalist state, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said that overall PA leader Mahmoud Abbas was facing his "moment of truth." If he accepts the cabinet as is, warned Mofaz, the Palestinian people would be plunged into utter economic depravity and social chaos. For its part, Israel would be forced to regard the PA as an implacable enemy, with all that implies.

Real Doves Of Peace

Despite the ominous introduction of a Hamas administration just next door to Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, foreign tourists continued to flock to the Holy Land in near record numbers during February and March. Israeli officials announced that some 150,000 overseas visitors entered the land during February alone, a 31% increase over the same month in 2005. March figures were expected to be even higher, with April a bumper month when thousands of Jewish tourists celebrating Passover would arrive along with many Christian pilgrims celebrating Easter. Tourism Minister Avraham Hirschon, a member of the Kadima party, said he was optimistic that his goal of bringing a record three million visitors to the land during 2006 could be met, despite reports that the unexpected Hamas victory, possible military action with Hizbullah and/or Iran, and security reports of a pending new Palestinian attrition war was already causing some groups to cancel tours planned for later this year.

Despite the serious trials and tribulations plaguing the Lords special land, those thinking of coming to visit Israel this year should carry on with their plans, knowing that if they trust in the Lord with all their hearts and acknowledge Him in all their ways, then He will direct their paths. (Proverbs 3:5-6)