Israel Update for January 2007

After an initial split between Olmert and Peretz as to who should replace Halutz, a compromise candidate was put forth. The new chief of staff, Reserve Major General Gabi Ashkenazi, was actually a leading candidate to replace Moshe Ya'alon when he was sacked in June 2005 by Ariel Sharon after expressing strong reservations over the then-pending unilateral Gaza withdrawal plan. In a meeting with Peretz, the Premier was quoted as telling him that "after holding consultations with 15 senior military commanders, I found broad support for Ashkenazi, and was given a complete picture why he is the right candidate capable of leading and continuing the process of learning the lessons of the war, which Halutz initiated."

The departing armed forces chief reportedly bristled at Olmert's suggestion that it was he who had launched the controversial conflict with Hizbullah forces, instead of senior cabinet ministers who are legally responsible for making such fateful decisions. Political commentators generally echoed this critique, saying that the increasingly unpopular Prime Minister will not succeed in evading his ultimate responsibility for the war's conduct by blaming mistakes on his chief military subordinate.

Netanyahu Comes Back

Olmert and Peretz agreed to Ashkenazi's appointment as fresh opinion polls suggested that both men have reached a new nadir of support from the Israeli public. A survey published in the Haaretz newspaper mid-month showed that only 14% of Israeli voters now approve of the job Olmert is doing as Premier, compared to around 25% in earlier surveys. Amir Peretz, who is generally expected to be replaced as Labour party leader when an internal party primary is held in May, was endorsed by a mere 10% of the voting public, down from around 15% in the war's immediate wake.

Opinion polls also revealed that the ruling Kadima political party-formed amid great fanfare by Ariel Sharon in late 2005 and widely anticipated at the time to become the new centrist force in Israeli politics for many years to come-would reverse its fortunes from last March if elections were held today. Instead of capturing the 28 seats it secured in 2006, the party would garner just 11 or 12 Knesset mandates, said several surveys.

The main opposition Likud party, from which most Kadima politicians fled, would return as the country's main political force, capturing around 29 seats. This would give its leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, the main shot at forming a new government.

In light of the army's official assessment that a major regional conflict is brewing with some of Israel's deadliest enemies this year, and with the resignation of Dan Halutz increasing pressure on both Peretz and Olmert to give up their national leadership jobs as well, some Israeli political analysts predicted that the embattled Premier will attempt to draft Netanyahu into an emergency national unity government in the coming months, as has occurred when previous Mideast wars loomed on the horizon. Some opined that the Likud leader will be named Defense Minister in place of Peretz, with his Labour party possibly being compensated by receiving the highly prized Foreign Ministry.

Ehud Olmert actually made some back channel approaches to his Likud nemesis to join a broad government last July. However the former Israeli prime minister said at the time that he preferred to remain as opposition leader in the Knesset while defending the Israeli government's controversial war effort on the international media stage. In the end, Netanyahu earned many kudos and fresh respect from Israeli voters as a result of his tireless efforts, despite frequent harsh attacks upon his personal character from Kadima and other parties during the election campaign last March.

Adding to the sense of crisis inside top Israeli government circles, Attorney General Menachem Mazuz announced in late January that he will indict President Moshe Katsav on charges of rape and sexual harassment in cases brought up by several females who previously worked in his presidential entourage. Katsav angrily denounced the action, blaming his troubles on saturation media coverage of the women's charges, while again insisting he is not guilty of committing any sexual crimes. The decision to indict renewed calls from many quarters for Katsav to immediately step down from his prominent post, but the country's first Sephardic President refused to budge. However it was subsequently announced that Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik would be appointed Acting President while the indictment is being processed-the first female to ever assume the largely ceremonial position, even if temporarily.

Rice Returns

Another female featured prominently in the Israeli press during January; this time a diplomat from the United States. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice returned to the region mid-month, ostensively to try and jumpstart the frozen Israeli-Palestinian peace process. After meeting in Jerusalem with PM Olmert and other senior Israeli officials, and then with Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Mahmoud Abbas in nearby Ramallah, Rice told a press conference that she had mainly come to listen to the two sides, not to bring new American peace plans or proposals to resolve the decades-old conflict.

Dr. Rice's fact-finding tour seemed just fine with Israeli officials-busy scrambling to prepare for the prospect of conflict this year with Syria, Hizbullah and Iran, along with the Palestinians, and also preoccupied with internal political instability. However Palestinian leaders publicly called for more aggressive American intervention to unthaw the frozen peace process, with former Oslo negotiator Saeb Erekat telling reporters that Abbas had asked Rice "to push ahead with final negotiations in back channels, in open channels, in secret channels, any way it can be achieved."

Israeli officials responded to the Palestinian calls with serious skepticism, noting that Abbas and company are hardly any more ready than besieged Israeli leaders for intensive negotiations at present, given the deep divisions inside the Palestinian government between Abbas and his PLO Fatah party and the radical Islamic Hamas movement that took over most PA positions after wining Palestinian legislative elections early last year.

They said negotiations held under such conditions are almost destined to fail, adding more fuel to burgeoning regional jihad fires. Still, Rice announced plans to return to the region in February to try again to jumpstart the "land for peace" process.