Israel Update for January 2007

Iran Is The Topic

Some Israeli analysts speculated that the real reason for Rice's Middle East visit-her third since October-was not the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at all, but Iran and Iraq. They noted that she was also holding consultations with most of America's closest Arab allies, including Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, in what many suspected was an attempt to drum up support for a possible US strike on Iran's escalating nuclear uranium enrichment program in the coming months. This contention seemed to be buttressed by the announcement that a second US aircraft carrier and accompany ships was on its way to the Persian Gulf, while over 20,000 additional American soldiers were being dispatched into mainly Shiite areas of Baghdad that might be expected to further erupt in violence in reaction to any US military action against neighboring Iran.

The beefing up of American forces in the region came as the Bush White House announced that orders had been given to kill or capture Iranian Revolutionary Guard agents illegally operating in Iraq. After the order was denounced by Senate Majority leader Harry Reid and others as a probable prelude to a US attack on Iran, the President defended his order: "It makes sense that if somebody's trying to harm our troops, or stop us achieving our goal, or killing innocent civilians in Iraq, that we will stop them," he said on January 26. Senator Reid, from Nevada, replied that he and his newly empowered majority party would demand that the President "get congressional approval for any program that could escalate the conflict with Iran."

President Bush insisted that American ground forces would not be allowed to pursue suspects into Iran itself. While declaring again that he would not allow the extremist Shiite mullahs that rule Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, he stated his continuing commitment to a diplomatic solution to the ongoing nuclear dispute. Noting that the hard-line regime in Tehran has shown absolutely no signs of giving up its openly stated ambition to carry on with its nuclear program despite United Nations economic sanctions imposed in December, Israeli Middle East analysts generally say that the time for diplomacy is rapidly coming to an end.

Syria Hosts Talks

The Baathist regime ruling in Damascus played host to unsuccessful negotiations in January to try to end growing bloodshed between Hamas and PLO gunmen in the PA zones of control. A scheduled meeting between Mahmoud Abbas and overall Hamas leader Khalid Mashaal, who is based in the Syrian capital, was cancelled when the meeting agenda could not be agreed upon by the two sides. Abbas again threatened to hold new Palestinian legislative elections in the coming months if Hamas does not agree to form a national unity government with Fatah politicians. But Mashaal made clear that his Sunni fundamentalist movement has no intention of heeding PLO calls to abandon its founding charter call for Israel's total destruction, along with demands for a complete end to the international peace process.

The failed negotiations in Damascus came as Palestinian militants fired more Kassams into Israel during the month, bringing to more than 100 rockets that have fallen since Abbas agreed to enforce a ceasefire in late November. Repeated attempts were made to strike Israel's sprawling electric power plant just south of the coastal city of Ashkelon, which experts warn could spark off massive explosions in nearby giant oil tanks that fuel the plant.

The continuing rocket assaults prompted the Olmert government to approve a plan to fortify all Israeli homes and other buildings located within seven kilometers of the Gaza Strip. The so-called "Gaza Envelope" plan, formulated inside the Prime Minister's office, will cost up to 900 million shekels (around US $200 million) to complete, say government officials.

The first buildings to be reinforced will be schools and other educational institutions. However during a meeting with municipal officials serving in areas covered under the plan, Olmert warned that "nothing can insure a total halt to the firing of Kassam rockets into your communities." The statement came despite ongoing military attempts to put together an anti-rocket defense system in the area, which is expected to be presented for government approval in the near future.

The Haaretz newspaper broke the news in mid-January that US-backed secret talks were held beginning in September 2004 between Syrian and Israeli representatives in an attempt to restart peace negotiations between the two adversaries. American-sponsored negotiations were broken off in early 2000 after the late Syrian dictator Hafez Assad demanded control over the northeastern shores of the Sea of Galilee, which was rejected as absurd by the government of Ehud Barak.

The informal exploratory talks, involving Israeli Foreign Ministry Director General Alon Liel and Syrian-American businessman Ibrahim Suleiman, were mediated by Switzerland; with the final round held during last year's Israeli-Hizbullah conflict. Preliminary understandings were reportedly reached regarding a full Israeli withdrawal from the contested Golan Heights and the establishment of a demilitarized buffer zone between the two countries. However PM Olmert reportedly nixed the potential accord after Syria began to rearm Hizbullah forces following last summer's conflict.

With fresh war clouds gathering in the region despite further talk of peace, it is more essential than ever to remember that the Prince of Peace holds the entire world in His mighty hands! It is the Lord himself who will comfort Zion, who will "comfort all of her waste places, and her wilderness He will make like Eden, and her desert like the garden of the Lord." (Isaiah 51:3).