Mal Fletcher comments

Mal Fletcher

With the passing of 2011, we wave goodbye to a season marked by deep economic uncertainty, violent summer riots, persistent questions about public institutions and a general belief that, surely, things can only get better.

But what challenges can we expect to face as a society in 2012? It's been said that the only way to control the future is to shape it today.

As a social futurist, my interest in the future is not merely in its technological, economic or political dimensions. I'm interested in what they might mean for groups of people - in families, companies and communities of all kinds. Based on my study of the past couple of decades, combined with ongoing research into current emerging shifts in technology and culture, here are my predictive picks for the 12 biggest social shifts we might expect to see in 2012.

The list is not intended as an exhaustive one - there are a number of possibilities I've left out. But hopefully it will stimulate your thinking and, in the process, get you engaging the future before it happens.

Hyper-Tech & Refuseniks

2012 will see a growing role for professional ethicists in corporate and government strategic planning, as new developments in medicine, bio-tech, genetics and other sciences stretch traditional ethics paradigms to the limit. Ethics and values will come to the fore in boardrooms and planning meetings across all sectors of civic leadership and industry.

At the same time, we will see the gradual emergence of vocal and well organised groups of 'technology refuseniks', people who call for a moratorium, or at least a slower pace of change, within technological research and development - especially in the medical, bio-tech and genetics industries. Formerly disparate interest groups will come together around a concern that we may be concentrating more on means than ends, with technology moving faster than measures to protect the quality of human life and the environment.

We can expect to see more aggressive debates about the melding of human physiology with medical hardware and perhaps a rise in demonstrations against bio-tech and genetic R & D.

De-Gadgetisation & the Neo-Frugals

Related to concerns about hyper-tech generally, 2012 will see a drive to recalibrate our reliance on digital communications. Social networking services will continue to play an important role in introducing people to new acquaintances and in facilitating ongoing communication with existing friends. However, people will become more aware of the limitations of cyber-communication and will try to invest more in building face-to-face friendships.

New studies will emerge further showing the challenges posed by Absent Presence and Constant Partial Attention, which limit human ability to interact meaningfully in real-time environments. New psychological terms will be introduced to describe fresh symptoms of psychological or social disorder derived from a heavy reliance on gadgets.

While digital communications devices will continue to grow in sophistication and demand, we can expect to see the burgeoning growth of new genres of publishing and media products dealing with the discipline of digital behaviour. We will also see more general public discussion about the need for a less digital, more human-centric social order.

Meanwhile, education and employer groups will set out to better train young people in real-time communication skills. Linked to this will be a neo-frugalism movement, which will urge a simpler, less consumer-driven lifestyle with greater levels of physical human interaction. The new frugalism, while given fresh impetus by the ongoing economic strains, will be centred around a core commitment to promoting human relationships.

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