Israel Update for December 2011

Israeli media reports said that the captured drone was one of the subjects discussed between American President Barrack Obama and visiting Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak when they met at Camp David in Maryland the middle of December. However the main focus was said to be the evidence mentioned by the unnamed senior American source indicating Iran has actually begun to assemble a nuclear bomb, or is at least on the verge of doing so. Also indicating that stepped up discussions about the situation in Iran and the region are now underway, a series of mid-level American officials paraded to Israel the second half of the month, including Lt. General Frank Gorenc, who commands a wing of the US Air Force. Media reports said he had come to the region to organize one of the largest ever shared military exercises between the United States and Israel. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's main lieutenant, Wendy Sherman, also traveled unexpectedly to Jerusalem in December, as did Robert Einhorn, the State Department's expert on nuclear weapons and nonproliferation issues. The two diplomats reportedly flew to Israel in order to "tie up" some strings dangling from the President's earlier meeting with Ehud Barak.
The situation in Iran was also thought to be a major topic when Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta flew to Ankara to meet with Turkish leaders during the month. This came amid Israeli press reports that Turkey's troops had been placed on full war footing in order to deal with the possible spillover effects of any action in Iran and with the deteriorating situation in Syria, located due south of Turkey. Middle East military analysts say they expect that Turkish air bases would probably be used as a base of operations if American warplanes are ordered by the Obama administration to attack Iran's nuclear production facilities.

Iran Holds Major War Exercises

Iranian military units began what was billed as a ten day war drill on the last day of December. Iranian Admiral Mahmoud Mousavi told the Iranian FARS news agency that the exercises will end with the test firing of long range missiles that are capable of hitting many regional countries, including Israel. "The firing of missiles is the final part of the navy drill," said Mousavi, adding that, "The final phase of the drill is to prepare the navy for confronting the enemy in war situations." The drill came just a couple weeks after Iranian leaders threatened to shut down all international oil shipments through the Straight of Hormuz, through which about 40% of the world's oil supplies passes each day. Experts say it would be relatively easy to chock off the pass by simply sinking a couple of the dozens of large oil tankers that transit the narrow Persian Gulf outlet each day. The heavy tankers travel along narrow channels that were long ago dug into the fairly shallow waterway to accommodate them. Since Iran has major naval and ground forces in the area, it should be theoretically easy for Iranian military forces to keep rescue crews from removing any seriously damaged petroleum vessels. America's main regional naval base is in nearby Bahrain, meaning its ships also need to transit the passageway when leaving Gulf waters.

Israeli leaders again publicly called on the international community to band together in order to deal with the Iranian nuclear production programme. IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz told Knesset members in late December that the Iranian threat can be neutralized if both Israel and the international community take what he called "a responsible stance" on the explosive issue. He added, "Iran is working on a nuclear programme for its military. This warrants concern from us, but the threat is not only directed towards Israel. The countries in our immediate proximity, and indeed beyond, are all at risk."

Grantz also took the opportunity to warn Palestinian Hamas leaders that a major IDF ground operation might be unleashed if frequent rocket firings from the Gaza Strip at Israeli targets does not quickly cease and desist. As during most of 2011, a series of Kassam rockets landed inside Israeli territory during December, some striking the cities of Beersheva and Ashkelon. This followed the firing of three rockets the end of November at northern Israel from southern Lebanon. Allied with Hamas, the Shiite Lebanese Hizbullah militia denied that its forces had been involved. The Lebanese Defense Minister actually claimed in late December that Israel itself had fired the rockets at its own soil in order to stir up tensions in Lebanon. His highly unusual contention was deemed totally absurd by officials in Jerusalem.

US Jets For Saudi Arabia

Among other Middle East countries that have expressed grave concern about Iran's actions and intentions is the oil-rich nation of Saudi Arabia. Saudi King Abdullah held a series of urgent consultations with other regional Arab leaders during December as additional war clouds gathered in the area. This came as the Obama administration finalized the sale of 84 advanced F-15 combat jets to Saudi Arabia. The huge transaction, approved by Congress after it was first proposed in 2010, is worth 30 billion US dollars. The combat jets are produced by the American Boeing aircraft conglomerate.
John Earnest, the deputy White House press secretary, said the large weapons sale "will positively impact the U.S. economy, and further advances the President's commitment to create jobs by increasing exports." According to industry experts, this agreement will support more than 50,000 American jobs, engaging 600 suppliers in 44 states and providing $3.5 billion in annual economic impact to the U.S. economy." Along with the F-15s, the package includes the supply of 70 Apache attack helicopters and 72 Black Hawk choppers. Israeli officials have not publicly opposed the weapons transfers, although they reportedly continue to worry that the advanced aircraft might eventually be used in a future Islamic war against the small Jewish State.

Arab Monitors In Syria

As domestic upheaval continued to rock the Arab country of Syria, Israeli Defense Minister Barak told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Intelligence Committee on January 2 that Syrian dictator Bashar Assad will be toppled from power within a few weeks time. The veteran Israeli political leader and former armed forces chief said that the increasing defection of thousands of Syrian military personnel to the increasingly powerful anti-government opposition spells the end of the Assad family dynasty which has ruled Syria for since the 1970s. Barak added that anarchy will probably follow the overthrow of the brutal regime, warning this could easily spill over into the Israeli-ruled Golan Heights, which was captured by IDF forces from Syria during the 1967 Six Day War. He confirmed press reports that Iran and Hizbullah have both been aiding the Assad regime in its fight to remain in power, which cost the lives of over 5,000 Syrians during 2011, most of them opposition protestors.

After imposing economic sanctions on the Assad regime, the Arab League was reluctantly allowed by it to send monitors into the troubled country in December. Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby said the monitors would remain in place for the time being in an effort to halt the fierce attacks upon anti-regime protestors, who are mainly Sunni Muslims as are most Arab League member states. In another major concession that began in late December, Bashar Assad ordered his security forces to retreat from most of his country's besieged cities and towns, where street battles have raged since last March. However press reports revealed that military forces were merely moved to the outskirts of the cities and towns, and therefore could be easily moved back into urban areas very quickly.

Meanwhile, a web site linked to the Assad regime called the Damas Post reported in early January that the Syrian dictator will soon announce his intention to form a new government which will include prominent members of the opposition. The report added that Assad was briefed by senior government negotiators who are quietly meeting with leading members of the anti-government Sunni opposition. This came as Assad continued to publicly justify his army's repressive actions, which have been widely condemned in most Arab countries and elsewhere around the world.

Russian leaders expanded their military support for the embattled Assad regime during December, sending a naval strike force to dock at the Syrian seaport of Tartus. This came after the Kremlin reportedly rushed over 70 shore to sea Yakhont SSN-26 missiles to Damascus. The missiles have been deployed along the Syrian Mediterranean coast where the Assad regime is keeping a wary eye on American, British and other NATO naval forces that regularly patrol the international waterway between Cyprus and Syria. Both the United States and the European Union have called upon Assad to quickly step down from power. Israeli media outlets said the delivery by the Kremlin in December of over three million protective face masks to Syria was raising new concern in Jerusalem. Syria is known to possess one of the world's largest chemical weapons stockpiles, initially developed with the active aid of the Communist Soviet Union in the 1970s. Bashar Assad has hinted at the possible use of such perilous weapons in the past. Syrian Vice President Farouk Al-Shara flew to Moscow for crisis consultations soon after the naval strike force arrived at Tartus, apparently in an attempt to seek more aid to help keep the repressive regime in power.

With the Middle East spinning around like a Hannukah dreidel in motion, the year ahead looks likely to be one of the most dramatic ones ever experienced in the tumultuous region. This apparent reality should give us all a renewed mandate to obey King David's ancient admonition to "Pray for the peace of Jerusalem," knowing that the Eternal One will "prosper all who love her" (Psalm 122:6).